As global markets continue to respond to ongoing conflict in the Middle East, pressure is once again building across energy, freight and commodity markets, with ripple effects already being felt across food and commodity supply chains.
Recent comments by the South African Reserve Bank Governor, Lesetja Kganyago, highlighted how rising oil prices and geopolitical instability could place further pressure on local fuel and food costs, reinforcing how closely connected South Africa remains to global economic shifts. And with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) announcement tomorrow, 20th May 2026, this reality may be confirmed for South African households as expert predictions paint a gloomy picture.
According to Morne Botes, Commercial Director at Southern Oil (SOILL), for the edible oil sector, the impact is less about shortages and more about market volatility.
“Even though South Africa crushes and refines a large portion of edible oil locally, pricing is still influenced by global markets,” says Botes. “Canola, soya, sunflower and palm oil all move internationally, so when geopolitical events place pressure on crude oil and commodity markets, the effects are eventually felt across the value chain.”
Local production, however, continues to play an important role in cushioning some of the impact.
South Africa’s canola industry has grown steadily in recent years, helping reduce reliance on imported finished oils and strengthening local supply capability. According to SOILL, canola remains the only 100% local edible oil in the market, with the local crop expected to grow from just over 300,000 metric tonnes in 2025 to an estimated 375,000 metric tonnes during the 2026 season.
“Local production helps cushion the extremes, it doesn’t remove exposure,” says Botes. “It gives the industry more flexibility and shortens supply lines, but South Africa still operates within a global commodity environment.”
South Africa also remains reliant on imported soft oils and palm-based products, which means currency volatility, shipping costs, and international pricing continue to influence the local market.
Rising oil prices continue to affect freight, fertiliser, packaging and processing costs, while ongoing pressure on global shipping routes is creating a far more unpredictable operating environment for producers and suppliers.
“What has changed over the last few years is the speed at which markets move,” says Botes. “Pricing has become more volatile, lead times are less predictable and businesses have less room to absorb uncertainty.”
According to Botes, supply chains are still functioning, but the added strain across logistics and transport networks is increasing costs across the system.
“At this stage, it’s not about product availability. Products are still moving, but shipping routes are longer, surcharges are increasing and insurance costs remain high – creating more pressure across the supply chain.”
While consumers may not immediately see drastic increases on shelves, food manufacturers and suppliers are often the first to absorb rising operational costs.
“You normally don’t see one sudden price jump,” explains Botes. “What usually happens first is market volatility, followed by gradual pricing adjustments if higher costs remain in the system over a longer period.”
Despite the uncertainty, Botes says there is no need for consumers to panic buy or stockpile products, as the industry is focused on maintaining stable a supply.
“The priority for us is flexibility, continuity and making sure customers remain competitive while managing volatility responsibly,” he adds. “We have sufficient stock, and the focus remains on keeping supply moving steadily.”
As households continue to navigate a tighter economic environment, consumers are becoming more deliberate in their product choices.
“When disposable income comes under pressure, value and health become increasingly important considerations for consumers.
Global volatility will always put pressure on food systems; what’s important is building a resilient local industry that can continue adapt, invest and supply consumers consistently amid changing market conditions,” concludes Botes.