February 2026 industry stats and trends

Agriculture:

1. Sector overview – scale, growth & performance

South African agriculture grew jobs in the final quarter of 2025:

• According to Stats SA’s Quarterly Labour Force Survey, farm employment reached 950 000 jobs in Q4 2025, up about 3% year-on-year, and the highest level since 2023. This accounted for roughly 5.6% of the total employed workforce.
• The sector added about 30 000 jobs in that quarter, outperforming several other segments of the economy. Stats SA

Production & food security

• 2025 saw continued expansion after a drought in 2024, with excellent harvests in crops, fruits and vegetables. This contributed to South Africa remaining food secure.
• Maize had the second-largest harvest on record, contributing to both domestic supply and exports. Agricultural economy

Consumer food costs

• The Household Food Basket cost decreased slightly in February 2026, giving short-term relief to shoppers; food price inflation was about 1.3% higher year-on-year but down month on month. 2026 Household affordability Index

2. Trade & export performance

Exports Reached Record Levels in 2025

• South African agricultural exports climbed to US$15.1 billion in 2025, about 10% higher than in 2024. This strong performance was broad, covering fruits, nuts and grains. Agbiz
• Exports in Q4 2025 alone were US$3.4 billion, up around 7% year-on-year.
• Key export products included citrus (record shipments), table grapes, wine, berries, apples and pears.
• South Africa retained its position as one of the top global citrus exporters, shipping over 200 million 15 kg cartons in 2025, a record.
• Net Agricultural Trade Balance: Exports far exceeded agricultural imports, leading to a trade surplus, about $7.3 billion in 2025. Agbiz

3. Sustainability, climate & resilience

• Increased rainfall across 2025 helped grazing conditions and reduced irrigation pressure, boosting crop and pasture prospects. Agricultural Economics Today
• Lower grain, fruit and vegetable prices in early 2026 reflect ample domestic and global supply, which tends to come from improved harvest conditions and efficient logistics. Agbiz
• Foot-and-mouth disease continues to affect livestock production, requiring vaccination strategies to safeguard productivity. Agbiz

4. Key trends & structural factors

• Innovation continues to grow, particularly with tools that help small-scale farmers monitor crops and access data, helping bridge productivity gaps (e.g., tech solutions from university competitions and digital platforms). UCT
• Consumer food price inflation stabilised at about 4.4% in early 2026, which is moderate compared with broader inflation pressures, suggesting that supply side performance is helping keep prices in check. Agbiz

Challenges still ahead

• Livestock disease outbreaks (especially foot-and-mouth) remain a major risk that can affect production value and consumer prices.
• Weather variability (floods in some areas) introduces production uncertainty.
• Export policy and trade barriers may affect long-term access to key markets – an ongoing policy conversation.

Canola:

1. Canola Oil market size 2025 – 2023 – global

• The global canola oil market size was calculated at USD 38.97 billion in 2025 and is anticipated to increase from USD 40.57 billion in 2026 to an estimated USD 58.24 billion by 2035, witnessing a CAGR of 4.1% during the forecast period from 2026 to 2035. With the increase in health-conscious consumers, there has been a climb towards plant-based diets and healthier cooking oils. Canola oil is lower in saturated fats and higher in unsaturated fats, making itself for regular cooking oil like vegetable oil and sunflower oil.

Key Highlights

• By region, Asia Pacific dominated the market with the highest share of 38% in 2025. The overall demand for canola oil is rising over the years which is due to changing consumer preference towards healthier cooking oils.
• By region, North America is expected to experience significant growth in the market during the forecast period. This region is experiencing huge growth, which makes canola cultivation attention-grabbing for farmers in North America.
• By product, processed canola oil registered the maximum market share of 72% in 2025. After harvesting of canola, they experience a series of processing steps for analysing and removing impurities.
• By product, the virgin canola oil segment is expected to grow at the fastest rate during the forecast period. The demand for virgin oil has been steadily growing due to rising awareness of health and wellness among consumers.
• By application, the food processing segment contributed the largest market share of 38% in the year 2025. It is utilized in huge amounts in baking, cooking, frying, and other applications because of its neutral taste and high smoke point.
• By application, the food servicing segment is expected to grow at the fastest rate during the forecast period. Canola oil is widely applied for its light flavor, versatility, and health advantages.
• By distribution channel, the supermarket and Hypermarket segment captured the maximum market share of 39% in the year 2025. Supermarkets sell canola oil in a variety of packaging formats to match different customer needs.
• By distribution channel, the online segment is expected to grow at the fastest rate during the forecast period. E-commerce platforms sell canola oil with the help of dedicated product listings on their site or mobile apps.

Towards FnB

2. South Africa Canola Oil Market Insights

• Deep Market Insights analysis indicates that the South Africa Canola Oil Market size, valued at USD 400.21 Million in 2024, is expected to expand to USD 565.19 Million by 2033.
• The South Africa market is forecasted to expand at a CAGR of 3.9% spanning 2026–2033.
• Conventional held the leading position among Source segments in 2024, based on market size.
• Organic is projected to post the fastest growth rate, sustaining its position as the most attractive Source segment during the forecast horizon.

Deep Market Insights

3. SA’s 2025-26 winter crop production estimate slashed once more

• South Africa’s 2025-26 winter crop harvest process is virtually over. This crop was planted in May 2025. The focus in the country is now on the 2025-26 summer crop season, which is still at its early stages, having been planted from October 2025. Still, we continue to receive the assessment of the harvest estimate for the 2025-26 winter crop.
• In recent months, the data have shown downward revisions. In its sixth production estimate, the Crop Estimate Committee (CEC) lowered South Africa’s 2025-26 winter crop once again to 2.66 million tonnes, down 2% from the December 2025 estimates. The current harvest is almost aligned with the 2024-25 season’s harvest. This estimate comprises wheat, barley, canola, oats and sweet lupines. The recent downward revision was mainly in wheat, oats, and sweet lupines; meanwhile, canola and barley were roughly unchanged.

agbiz

4. South Africa Edible Oil Market Statistics, 2025

• Market Size Statistics

• Edible Oil in South Africa is estimated at $ 680 Million.
• The market size is expected to grow to $ 770 Million by 2030.
• Market to register a CAGR of around 2.09% during 2025-30.

• Product Shares

• Sunflower Oil grabbed market share of 40%.
• Sunflower Oil to witness a volume CAGR of around 1.12%.

• Competition

• More than 10 companies are actively engaged in producing Edible Oil in South Africa.
• Top 5 companies acquired 80% of the market share.
• Unity Food Products (Pty) Ltd, Southern Oil (Pty) Ltd, Upfield Holdings BV, Cape Oil & Margarine (Pty) Ltd, Wilmar SA (Pty) Ltd etc., are few of the top companies.

• Sales Channel

• Retail Offline grabbed 95% of the market.

Vyansa Intelligence

5. Canola Mayonnaise Sales Market Report: Trends, Forecast and Competitive Analysis to 2031

• The global canola mayonnaise sales market is expected to grow with a CAGR of 6.3% from 2025 to 2031. The major drivers for this market are the increase in health-conscious consumers, the rising popularity of vegan & plant-based diets, and the growing awareness of heart-healthy fats.

Emerging Trends in the Canola Mayonnaise Sales Market

• There are new trends emerging that are likely to alter how the world processes and uses canola mayonnaise sales market. A greater focus on health, the environment, and consumption patterns is shaping different parts of the economy and the canola mayonnaise market is no different. These are the trends that are taking shape in the market:

• Focus on Healthy and Nutritional: Consumers today want products that do not contain fats, calorie, or any artificial ingredients. Due to its composition, canola mayo is partially meeting this need and as a result canola oil is now a preferred oil heath wise. This trend is helping in increasing sales of canola mayonnaise in the United States and European regions where consumers are searching for healthier substitutes to mayonnaise.
• Sustainability and Eco-friendly practices: There is mounting concern for the environment among consumers which is putting pressure on food manufacturers to adopt sustainable methods. The manufacturers are responding to this concern by using sustainable ingredients and eco-friendly packaging. A number of manufacturers are switching to organic and non-GMO canola oil to subsequently reduce their carbon footprint. This trend is beginning to attract environmentally concerned consumers.
• Vegan Plant-Based Trends: The increasing popularity of plant-based diets has significantly bolstered the sales of vegan-friendly condiments, especially canola mayonnaise which naturally meets the requirements. The growing inclination towards vegetarian and vegan lifestyles aids in the rising acceptance of canola mayonnaise. This phenomenon is particularly strong in Western markets and urbanized areas experiencing population growth where the consumption of plant-based foods is rapidly normalized.
• Flavored and Specialty Varieties: In recognition of shifting consumer preferences, many brands are now offering flavored canola mayonnaise variants such as garlic, spicy, and herb canola mayonnaise. These specialized products are meant for consumers who seek novel gastronomic experiences. There is also a notable rise in organic and low sodium canola mayonnaise which is directed towards more health-conscious consumers. The growing variety of products is broadening the market for canola mayonnaise.
• Availability in Foodservice: The emergence of canola mayonnaise is not restricted to non-food retailers. Restaurants and fast-casual chains are increasingly using canola mayonnaise as one of their dressings as they move to healthier options for their meals. This adds to the need from food-service establishments, especially the fast-food industry, which in turn increases the global demand for canola mayonnaise.

Research and Markets

6. Canola Seed Trends

• The global canola seed market is projected to witness robust growth during the forecast period (2025-2033), driven by a confluence of factors.
• Increasing global demand for vegetable oils and biofuels is a primary catalyst. Canola oil’s versatility as a cooking oil and its use in various food products contributes significantly to this demand.
• The rising adoption of biofuels, particularly biodiesel, further boosts canola seed production.
• Furthermore, the growing awareness of the health benefits associated with canola oil, particularly its low saturated fat content, has fueled consumer preference.
• The market is also shaped by technological advancements, especially in seed breeding and genetic modification.
• The development of herbicide-tolerant and disease-resistant canola varieties enhances crop yields and reduces production costs, fostering market growth.
• The trend toward sustainable agriculture, with a focus on minimizing the environmental impact of farming, is also influencing market dynamics. Companies are investing heavily in developing varieties with improved environmental profiles, including reduced pesticide use and water conservation strategies.
• However, challenges remain, including the volatility of crop prices and the impact of climate change on agricultural yields. Government policies promoting sustainable agriculture and biofuels production also play a pivotal role in shaping the market trajectory.

DiMarket

7. South Africa is Set to Have a Record Canola Harvest in the 2025-26 Season

• At the end of September 2025, the Crop Estimate Committee released its second production forecast for canola, indicating a possible harvest of 311,640 tonnes, a 3% decrease from the August 2025 estimate. Notably, this remains 7% higher than the previous season. The annual gains are primarily due to the expansion in area plantings.
• Canola is a relatively new crop in South Africa, but it remains a success story. Since South African farmers began planting the crop commercially on 17,000 hectares in 1998-99, the area has increased to an estimated 164,900 hectares by the 2025-26 season.
• Over the years, the catalyst behind the increase in canola plantings has been a rise in domestic demand or usage for oils and oilcake.

Wandile Sihlobo